Oil has swung between gains and losses since mid-October, buffeted by a range of factors including concerns over Chinese demand and a stronger dollar that makes commodities priced in the greenback less appealing. Oil rose on signs that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating further.
Brent climbed toward USD 74 a barrel after Ukraine said Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at the central city of Dnipro, following the expanded use of Western-provided long-range weapons by Kyiv's forces. The Russian strike, if confirmed, appears to be the first use of such a weapon since its development at the inception of the Cold War.
There have also been some bullish signs for prices in recent days, with premiums of refined products over crude climbing to multi-month highs. In the US, a proxy of the margins obtained from turning crude into gasoline and diesel hit the highest level since August as Gulf Coast fuel makers step up production to meet rising exports.
Oil has swung between gains and losses since mid-October, buffeted by a range of factors including concerns over Chinese demand and a stronger dollar that makes commodities priced in the greenback less appealing. The market is facing a supply glut next year and investors are watching for a decision from OPEC+ on plans to start reviving idled supply. That has kept a lid on any rally fueled by geopolitical concerns.
"We expect oil prices to test new lows next year as geopolitical risk subsides and bearish fundamental factors take great weight," Macquarie Group analysts including Vikas Dwivedi wrote in a note dated Nov. 20. Futures are currently "range-bound with limited catalysts," they added.
