Sumitomo Metal forecasts widening global nickel supply surplus in 2025

The global nickel market is poised for a larger surplus next year, driven by continued production expansion in Indonesia, Japan's largest nickel smelter Sumitomo Metal Mining said on Wednesday.

The surplus will widen to 104,000 metric tons from 86,000 tons this year as Indonesia's output of low-grade nickel pig iron is expected to rise by 11.3% to 1.67 million tons, SMM said during its half-year market outlook presentation.

The country's production of high-grade nickel is also forecast to grow, it added.

Global demand for the metal in 2025 was seen increasing by 7.1% from this year to 3.55 million tons, while supply was likely to climb 7.4% to 3.65 million tons, SMM said.

Supply and demand in a lower purity form of so-called Class 2 nickel is expected to be roughly balanced next year despite higher NPI supply from Indonesia, SMM executive officer Yusuke Niwa said.
"But we expect a surplus in (the almost-pure) Class 1 nickel due to output expansion by Indonesia's new smelters," he said.

Nickel is primarily used in the stainless steel sector, but is also a critical component in lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, where demand is set to surge in the coming years.

SMM, which supplies cathode materials for the Panasonic lithium-ion batteries used in Tesla EVs, predicts that global demand for nickel used in batteries will grow to around 520,000 tons in 2025 from about 470,000 tons this year.

However, Niwa expressed caution about the outlook, noting: "The EV market environment looks quite difficult, except in China."

"While we anticipate next year's demand to grow by 50,000 tons from this year... there is a possibility it may fall short of that projection," he added.