Rupee's choppy price action puts focus on two key levels

Jan 24, 2025

Oil prices, meanwhile, dipped on Friday, a day after Trump pressured OPEC to lower prices. Brent crude is now down more than 3% this week.
The Indian rupee is expected to open marginally higher on Friday to round off an up-and-down week, with traders now focussing on two key levels of 86.30 and 86.60 to gauge the currency's near-term direction.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 86.38-86.40 to the U.S. dollar, compared to 86.4575 in the previous session.

The rupee has managed to find a bit of relief this week, thanks largely to U.S. President Donald Trump. While Trump talked of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union, he has held off on actually imposing them.

The rupee is up about 0.2% this week so far, headed for its best performance since mid-September. The local currency managed a mini rally to near 86.30 twice this week, which it found difficult to sustain.

"The focus, considering the recent price action, is on the 86.30 level on the downside (for dollar/rupee pair) and on 86.60 on the upside," a currency trader at a bank said.

The rupee has been finding support at the 86.50-86.60 level on the back of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, according to bankers.

This week "was all about" the rupee "finding space" and the question is whether that will sustain, the trader said.

Other Asian currencies have fared better. The offshore Chinese yuan, the Korean won, the Singaporean dollar and the Malaysian ringgit are all up between 1% and 1.7%.

The Japanese yen has inched up 0.1%. The Bank of Japan rate decision is due shortly, with the central bank expected to raise interest rates to its highest level in 17 years, and signal that more hikes are in the offing.

Oil prices, meanwhile, dipped on Friday, a day after Trump pressured OPEC to lower prices. Brent crude is now down more than 3% this week.